The 75/55 rule is STRecon's calendar test for whether a short-term rental listing has the booking density to sustain strong returns. A listing passes 75 when 22 or more of the next 30 nights are booked — 75% occupancy. It passes 55 when 16 or more of the 30–60 day window are booked — the 55% threshold. Passing both is necessary to be classified as a Top Performer, but not sufficient: STRecon also requires the listing to clear the review-cadence test before placing it in the Exceptional, Performer, or Potential tiers.
How the 75/55 rule works
The rule operates on two overlapping forward-looking windows, both read from the listing's public Airbnb calendar.
- Near window (days 0–30): count booked nights out of 30. 22 or more = passes 75.
- Forward window (days 30–60): count booked nights out of 30. 16 or more = passes 55.
We read each listing's calendar directly, so the count reflects actual reservations, not projections. A night counts as booked only if it appears unavailable on the calendar at the moment of the scrape.
A listing can pass one window and fail the other, and the interpretation changes depending on which:
- Passes 75, fails 55 → strong current demand, uncertain forward booking. Common in markets with short booking lead times.
- Fails 75, passes 55 → forward demand is holding, but near-term is under-booked. Often the first sign of a softening market.
- Fails both → the listing is underperforming in both windows. It will not be classified as a Top Performer regardless of review activity.
Why these specific thresholds
75% and 55% are not arbitrary. They are the occupancy levels at which, in the markets we measure, a typical STR listing covers its operating costs and begins producing meaningful cash flow after debt service. Listings that sustain these levels across the full year are, in our data, the ones that hold up through supply shocks, seasonal troughs, and regulatory tightening.
The near window captures current booking momentum — whether travelers are actively choosing this listing right now. The forward window measures whether that demand holds far enough ahead to support planning.
Setting both thresholds higher would exclude listings in markets with legitimately short booking lead times. Setting them lower would let weak listings through. 22 of 30 and 16 of 30 were the numbers that best separated performers from underperformers across the markets we scraped.
A worked example
Two listings in the same market, scraped on the same night:
Listing A
- Days 0–30: 24 of 30 nights booked → passes 75
- Days 30–60: 17 of 30 nights booked → passes 55
- Verdict: passes both. Foundation of a top-tier listing.
Listing B
- Days 0–30: 20 of 30 nights booked → fails 75 (needs 22)
- Days 30–60: 12 of 30 nights booked → fails 55 (needs 16)
- Verdict: fails both. Underperforming.
Same market, same night. The 75/55 rule makes the difference readable in seconds.
What it means when a listing fails
A single failing listing is not a verdict on the market. One listing can fail because of poor photos, thin reviews, aggressive pricing, or an owner who blocks nights for personal use. The 75/55 rule is most useful when applied to every listing in a market and read in aggregate.
If you are evaluating an individual property for purchase, a fail is a signal to investigate fixable versus structural causes. If you are evaluating a market, what matters is the share of listings classified as Top Performers — see "Where 75/55 fits in the Market Signal" below.
Where 75/55 fits in the Market Signal
The 75/55 rule is one of two tests STRecon runs against every listing. The other is the review-cadence test, which checks whether the listing is generating reviews at the 2–3-per-month rhythm of a genuinely-booked Airbnb. The two tests together place the listing in one of six tiers:
- Exceptional / Performer / Potential — the three Top Performer tiers, all of which require passing 75/55 plus credible review activity.
- Watch — the listing passes 75/55 but its review cadence is anemic. The unavailable nights are more likely host blocks than real bookings. STRecon does not classify Watch listings as Top Performers, even when the calendar looks strong. This is the tier that separates STRecon from raw-calendar tools.
- Avoid — the listing fails 75/55 and shows little review activity. Underperforming on both signals.
- Unreliable — the scrape couldn't get a clean read of the calendar (anti-bot stripping, hydration timeouts), so STRecon can't apply the test honestly. Unreliable listings are excluded from market verdict math rather than dragging it down.
The Market Signal — STRONG, MODERATE, CAUTION, or INCONCLUSIVE — is computed from the share of listings classified as Top Performers, not from the raw 75/55 pass rate. A market with 15%+ Top Performers signals STRONG; 5–15% signals MODERATE; under 5% signals CAUTION. INCONCLUSIVE fires when fewer than 80% of discovered listings could be cleanly scraped.
That distinction matters: a market can have a high 75/55 pass rate and still signal CAUTION if most of those passes are driven by host-blocked listings that fail the review-cadence test and land in Watch. The full Market Signal definition lives at /how-it-works.
Related concepts
- Calendar booked rate — the underlying metric the 75/55 rule reads from.
- AirDNA estimates vs. scraped data — why the 75/55 rule only works on real calendar data.
- How STRecon works — end-to-end scraping methodology, the tier system, and the Market Signal.
Run your market at strecon.app. Draw your target area, get the verdict by morning.